Who Will Win the 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination?

David Moskowitz

Predictions like this, made nearly four years out, are by nature fraught. However, even at this stage, the most likely contenders are becoming clear. The names most often bandied about are Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, and Jeb Bush; however, I think that the two most likely nominees are Paul Ryan and Rick Santorum. Paul Ryan is a conventional choice, but Rick Santorum has been largely discounted. However, I think that most pundits have under-rated Santorum's chances. Republicans usually choose the candidate who is "next-in-line" as their nominee. In 2008, it was John McCain, who won the most primaries after Bush in 2000, and in 2012 it was Romney, who came second to McCain in 2008. This time around, that status is generally being given to Paul Ryan, who was Romney's V.P. candidate, or Jeb Bush, who is the last member of the Bush dynasty eligible to run for president. However, Santorum has more of a claim to this status than any of these other candidates. Bush, despite his seniority in age, has never run for national office, and Ryan's status as a failed V.P. candidate doesn't confer the status one might expect. The fact is, Republicans have only nominated the V.P. on a losing ticket once in the era of modern primaries - Bob Dole, V.P. to Gerald Ford - and that was several elections later, after he became Speaker of the House. Santorum, on the other hand, is the person who won the second highest amount of delegates in the 2012 primaries - including the coveted Iowa primary.

Another reason that Santorum will be in a better position than people think is for organizational reasons. Republican primaries are often cast as a struggle between moderates and radicals, but a more accurate description would probably be establishment vs. activists. Establishment candidates have won the last two primaries because of superior organization. The Republican establishment had decided on their next candidate almost as soon as the last primary was over. Activists, on the other hand, didn't coalesce around a candidate until after several primaries had already passed. The establishment and their supporters were able to direct all of their efforts towards one candidate, while activists and their supporters split their funds and resources between several different candidates. This year, however, the activists have a clear candidate to rally around in Santorum, but the establishment has three frontrunners (Ryan, Bush, and Rubio). 

 I do think that Paul Ryan will eventually beat Bush and Rubio, however. Rubio, despite his political gifts, is just not ready for a national race in my opinion. He looked like an unprepared novice in his response to the State of the Union, and – like Paul Ryan in 2012 – I think that Rubio will end up not being ready for the type of scrutiny he’ll be exposed to when running for VP. Jeb Bush, though, is a much different story. On paper, he looks like the most formidable of all the candidates. He hasn't run for national office yet, but he still has far more experience than anyone else on the ballot. Furthermore, his last name gives him access to a storied political machine and piles of money. Last but not least, as the long-time governor of an important swing state, he has bipartisan cred, managerial experience, and Washington-outsider status. However, I think that Bush is just too moderate for the current Republican Party. Outside of immigration, I feel that his concessions are mostly cosmetic, but they're still far more than Republicans are willing to give up. Outside the Democrats somehow retaking the house in 2014, I think that Republicans will be able to convince themselves that 2008 and 2012 were flukes, the triumphs of a machiavellian operator with a genius for politicking against two overmatched candidates who ran scattered, ineffective campaigns.

Thus I think that Paul Ryan will end up beating out Rubio and Bush. I event think that he will end up winning the nomination itself over Santorum. However much the activists may boast about their grassroots support, I don't think they know how to actually win elections. I don't think they really know how to get their supporters to do the work that actually wins elections (canvassing, canvassing, and more canvassing). I think Santorum is also especially bad at campaigning. He has a really bad case of diarrhea of the mouth in the worst way possible (Clinton had this problem too; but in him it seemed charming and genuine, while Santorum just seems self-righteous). I also think Santorum doesn't trust the right people - or perhaps he doesn't even know them. According to what I have read, his 2012 campaign was unorganized and amateurish, and he'll end up losing again if he can't put together a more professional outfit.